Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
