Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
